A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
